Following Karls' Families

Migration Maps, Tõnn, Greater Spotted Eagle and Black Storks
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Owlie

Re: Following Karls' Families

Post by Owlie »

Anne7 wrote: October 29th, 2021, 5:57 pm ---
Moreover, most of the above mentioned BS fly over Italy to Tunisia. From Crete to Egypt is extremely rare.

Fingers crossed!
Maybe it is the best to not hope too much, according to your presented statistics. I myself prefer to trust in Udu.
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Post by Anne7 »

Owlie wrote: October 29th, 2021, 6:23 pm Maybe it is the best to not hope too much, according to your presented statistics. I myself prefer to trust in Udu.
:puzzled:
Owlie, these are not my statistics.
I quoted Dr. Tamás Enikő Anna, the Hungarian, respected BS expert.

And of course I do hope for the best!
Why do you think I’m analysing Udu’s flights each and every day?
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Post by Owlie »

Anne7 wrote: October 29th, 2021, 6:33 pm :puzzled:
Owlie, these are not my statistics.
I quoted Tamás Enikő Anna, a respected BS expert.

And of course I do hope for the best!
Why do you think I’m analysing his/her flights each and every day?
I just wish to bring hope in this depressing discussion - the life is not dead before it is really dead - our birds do survive, many of them
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Post by Anne7 »

Owlie wrote: October 29th, 2021, 6:44 pm I just wish to bring hope in this depressing discussion - the life is not dead before it is really dead - our birds do survive, many of them
That is fine, Owlie! :thumbs:

Personally, I value scientific research. I do not want to discourage anyone, I just wish to inform. I hope that this forum is still an appropriate place to do so?

For me, scientific research is separate from the great hope and belief that we all experience for our individual birds. And in any case, statistics do not apply to an individual bird, but by definition only to large numbers.

If it is depressing for you to read what scientists write, I am very sorry, Owlie. You could perhaps skip reading it?
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Post by Owlie »

Anne7 wrote: October 29th, 2021, 7:22 pm That is fine, Owlie! :thumbs:

Personally, I value scientific research. I do not want to discourage anyone, I just wish to inform. I hope that this forum is still an appropriate place to do so?

For me, scientific research is separate from the great hope and belief that we all experience for our individual birds. And in any case, statistics do not apply to an individual bird, but by definition only to large numbers.

If it is depressing for you to read what scientists write, I am very sorry, Owlie. You could perhaps skip reading it?
If you wish so, yes, perhaps it is not worth reading only statistics, if one believes in exceptions. I don't hope you get Udu dead - even if you might get right.
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Post by juta »

PIKNE

Unfortunately no data.
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Post by juta »

KARL II

Tracker map 28.10 - 29.10

No new data.
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Post by juta »

UDU

Tracker map 28.10 - 29.10

No data.
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Post by Anne7 »

Owlie wrote: October 29th, 2021, 7:40 pm If you wish so, yes, perhaps it is not worth reading only statistics, if one believes in exceptions. I don't hope you get Udu dead - even if you might get right.
“get Udu dead” ??! :shock:
No one has ever stated that Udu will not survive, Owlie! :puzzled:
How "might I get right" about something I never said ?!

What kind of conversation is this ?!
I suggest we stop it here.
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Post by Anne7 »

Thank you, Juta! :hi:

I believe that all 3 are out of GSM range.

Hopefully tomorrow...
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Post by Owlie »

Anne7 wrote: October 29th, 2021, 8:04 pm “get Udu dead” ??! :shock:
No one has ever stated that Udu will not survive, Owlie! :puzzled:
How "might I get right" about something I never said ?!

What kind of conversation is this?!
I suggest we stop it here.
Sorry to be too straight, Anne7. I admit to have been provocative in my expressions.

What I mean is that I don't like that your prognosis and statistics have from the beginning seemed to prove that everything Udu has done in her/his migration has began and gone on "wrong". S/he took the "wrong" route to start with. S/he stayed "for long" time in Poland. S/he did not correct her/his course to east as hoped but went further directly southwards. S/he continued to the direction over Mediterranean sea against the ideal route along the coasts towards Africa. S/he flew to Egypt deserts. Your statistics and prognosis have all the time been worried over her/his survival - because they are all the time against her/him.

For me Udu seems to be an individual surviver, who does it in her/his own way. Why should it be proved to be wrong all the time? Why not exceptionally awesome?
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Post by Anne7 »

Owlie wrote: October 29th, 2021, 9:40 pm Sorry to be too straight, Anne7. I admit to have been provocative in my expressions.

What I mean is that I don't like that your prognosis and statistics have from the beginning seemed to prove that everything Udu has done in her/his migration has began and gone on "wrong". S/he took the "wrong" route to start with. S/he stayed "for long" time in Poland. S/he did not correct her/his course to east as hoped but went further directly southwards. S/he continued to the direction over Mediterranean sea against the ideal route along the coasts towards Africa. S/he flew to Egypt deserts. Your statistics and prognosis have all the time been worried over her/his survival - because they are all the time against her/him.

For me Udu seems to be an individual surviver, who does it in her/his own way. Why should it be proved to be wrong all the time? Why not exceptionally awesome?
I prefer friendly or at least correct conversations, and I really don't like provocative comments, Owlie. They hurt. I could easily have been as provocative as you were, but I choose not to be. What would be the advantage of that?

Yes, you are right, I have been worried about Udu's (deliberately chosen or unintended) route. And thus about his survival. And honestly, I still am. (Actually, I often worry about all of our migrating BS.) :rolleyes:
But the statistics cited are not mine, and I have never written a personal prognosis, as far as I remember.

I sincerely hope you are right when you say: "For me Udu seems to be an individual surviver, who does it in her/his own way. Why should it be proved to be wrong all the time? Why not exceptionally awesome?" :thumbs: And yes, little Udu is really awesome!

Because, after all, we all hope for the same thing, we all hope for the best. The survival and wellbeing of all of our beloved birds.
We are on the same side, aren’t we? 8-)
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Post by Owlie »

Anne7 wrote: October 29th, 2021, 10:35 pm Because, after all, we all hope for the same thing, we all hope for the best. The survival and wellbeing of all of our beloved birds.
We are on the same side, aren’t we? 8-)
Yes, Anne7, we are on the same side, indeed, :heart: And we hopefully want to learn of the possible new truths as well as the statistic ones.
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Post by Anne7 »

Owlie wrote: October 29th, 2021, 10:59 pm
:thumbs: :wave:
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Post by Anne7 »

.
BIRDMAP OVERVIEW OCTOBER 29

KARL II
Previous data: : 28.10.2021, distance 7083 km, +619 km in 2 days, travelling. Karl II flew to the SW and sent data from his overnight place near Umm Harazat in Sudan.
NO NEW data

UDU
Previous data: 28.10.2021, distance 6080 km, + 87 km in 1 day, stopover. Udu sent data from the Farafra Oasis in Egypt.
NO NEW data

PIKNE
Previous data: 24.10.2021, distance 5461 km, +652 km in 2 days, travelling. Pikne sent data near Hurghada in Egypt.
NO NEW data

Good night! :wave:
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Post by Liz01 »

Anne7 wrote: October 29th, 2021, 9:05 pm ....I believe that all 3 are out of GSM range.
Anne :hi:

No new data

There was a big solar flare. GPS signals can be affected worldwide! Even the power supply can be affected. We have Northern Lights here on the Baltic Sea coast! :headroll:

It will take a few days?
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Post by sova »

*****
Good evening everybody
Liz....I read that today too :D


Liz01 wrote: October 30th, 2021, 5:51 pm Anne :hi:

No new data

There was a big solar flare. GPS signals can be affected worldwide! Even the power supply can be affected. We have Northern Lights here on the Baltic Sea coast! :headroll:

It will take a few days?
....
Solar flares are sudden bursts of radiation on our central star, with which large quantities of high-energy particles are often thrown into space. If such a solar storm hits the earth, it can have serious consequences for satellites, communication and energy supply systems.

The eruption on Thursday was classified in the strongest class “X”, but only given the lowest class “1”. According to NASA, an eruption with the strength X2 is twice as strong as the one that has now occurred. Only from X10, i.e. ten times the strength, however, the space agency speaks of an "unusually intense" eruption.
https://www.nau.ch/news/forschung/polar ... n-66033383
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Post by Liz01 »

sova wrote: October 30th, 2021, 6:19 pm .........The eruption on Thursday was classified in the strongest class “X”, but only given the lowest class “1”. According to NASA, an eruption with the strength X2 is twice as strong as the one that has now occurred. Only from X10, i.e. ten times the strength, however, the space agency speaks of an "unusually intense" eruption.

Well, I have known since yesterday! I saw the northern lights on the Baltic Sea! Tonight we shall have the pleasure one more time. :loveshower:
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Post by sova »

Liz01 wrote: October 30th, 2021, 6:33 pm Well, I have known since yesterday! I saw the northern lights on the Baltic Sea! Tonight we shall have the pleasure one more time. :loveshower:
I wish you a lot of fun :D
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Post by juta »

PIKNE

No new data
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